Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Time to pull up socks, statistically speaking!

(Published in 'The Sentinel Arunachal' on November 4, 2009)
Once again, we have been reminded that Arunachal is a below average performing State. That is precisely what the National Accounts Division of the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) has established.
It is a matter of grave concern to note that since 1993, Arunachal has fallen flat by 25% by its own standard as per the latest data release, keeping aside national average as the reference point. One can’t help but try and find solace in the famous quote of Aaron Levenstein, ‘Statistics are like a bikini’. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.’
The CSO data, for sure, is suggestive of the way Arunachal is heading to, but may have concealed many facets which are vital to this study report.
First, the vitals are not reflected in statistics so released. It is tricky to comment on what is not reflected but, as Edward Gibbon (1737–1794) had so famously remarked, ‘Rome rose to the pinnacle of glory when Romans gave their best and Rome collapsed once Romans started taking away’, when asked about the cause of ‘Rise and Fall of Rome’. Wonder if that is the reason for 25 % fall of Arunachal?
Levenstein’s view on statistical revelation could be correct and suggests many things: one, for record, the official site of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MSPI), organization have provided a list of core statistical activities not being carried by Arunachal. They include such vital issues as:
1. State Domestic Product, 2. Capital Formation, 3. District Domestic Product, 4. Annual Survey of Industries, 5. Whole Sale Price Index, 6. Index of Industrial Production, 7. Consumer Price Index and so on and so forth. Therefore, statistics could be either wrong this time or was wrong that time.
But ground reality could be close to what has been revealed, and it is not a happy situation. To think that even after 60 years of Independence and administrative transformation over the years from being called as Excluded Area (1937), North East Frontier Track (1954), North East Frontier Agency (1957), Arunachal (UT) in 1972 and Arunachal (State) in 1987, Arunachal has failed in realizing that statistics is core to planning.
Devoid of data, the State has failed in prioritizing the developmental process. In this era, Arunachal cannot and should not seek fund from the Central government on emotional appeal, data should speak the status of where we are today.
It is about time that Central government realized that ‘hand-holding’ is important in this part of India. And they must facilitate- not just serve food and leave - but teach the method of eating too. In the meantime, the Khandu-led government also must ask the Central government to institute a fact-finding team of experts as to why, in the last 3 years, only INR 560 crore out of INR 1100 crore had been released by North Eastern Council (NEC). The new government should also seek a ‘white paper’ on how to spend INR 10,000 crore in non-lapsable pool of resources, which has accumulated over the last eight years.
Sure enough, the reasons won't be too far to seek.

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