The LS polls promise much joy for the BJP, but the Assembly will be a bridge too far
In the mountains of Arunachal Pradesh, the mood seems to be in favour of Narendra Modi. During his maiden visit on 22 February, more than 20,000 people turned up to hear him in Pasighat. Traffic was chock-a-block and hotels were overflowing. Such a response was unprecedented for a non-Congress national leader. BJP insiders revealed that the party had to issue diktats to district units to limit sending delegates due to logistical and budget constraints.
In the mountains of Arunachal Pradesh, the mood seems to be in favour of Narendra Modi. During his maiden visit on 22 February, more than 20,000 people turned up to hear him in Pasighat. Traffic was chock-a-block and hotels were overflowing. Such a response was unprecedented for a non-Congress national leader. BJP insiders revealed that the party had to issue diktats to district units to limit sending delegates due to logistical and budget constraints.
In tribal societies, virility is venerated: Modi’s looks and powerful oratory evoked a macho persona that enthralled the tribals. Local media agreed that the people were mostly Modi admirers and not necessarily BJP supporters. However, if anecdotes are to be believed, the people are leaning towards the BJP. Though the mood is questionable, election analysis in Arunachal has always been based on anecdotes and pollsters have had a very limited role. Unique to the state, 8 lakh tribals vote on the basis of factors such as tribe-clan-matrimonial alliances, which is not visible to the so-called experts, thus making it difficult for psephologists to predict anything.
Broadly speaking, it won’t be far-fetched to conclude that the BJP will secure its highest-ever tally and cross the double-digit mark in the polls to the 60-member Assembly, which will be held along with the General Election. But the Congress is expected to retain power because most of the political heavyweights, who enjoy the support of the tribes, are still with the party. However, the locals have been discreet in differentiating between national and local politics. So, the BJP is likely to win both the Lok Sabha seats in the state, just like it did in 2004, thanks to the India Shining campaign.
But a string of withdrawals by “winnable candidates” does not augur well for the BJP. The state unit ought to be worried about this trend. It shows that the BJP is losing steam as election day inches closer, especially in the western Arunachal Lok Sabha constituency, where Kiren Rijiju is challenging incumbent MP Takam Sanjoy. Until a week ago, it was assumed that Rijiju would enjoy a cakewalk but the landscape is changing thick and fast in at least 20 of the 33 Assembly constituencies where Sanjoy has managed to stitch together alliances.
On the other hand, though treated as an underdog, Tapir Gao could emerge as a dark horse but on the condition that Neiphu Rio’s Naga People’s Front, an influential factor in 12 out of 27 Assembly seats in Patkai Hills, should extend support to the BJP general secretary, who is also the in-charge of Manipur and Nagaland. A potent factor in the largely rural set-up is Gao’s down-to-earth approach, which gives him an edge over incumbent MP Ninong Ering. With the Siang Basin split between the two candidates — the Upper Basin for Gao and Lower Basin for Ering — Lohit Valley and Mishmi Hills could prove to be Gao’s Waterloo.
Even though Arunachal has always been a Congress bastion, what could prove to be its Achilles’ heel is infighting, which forced Chief Minister Nabam Tuki to call for early polls. It could be a just a matter of time before rebel Congress MLAs break away and help install a BJP government, like it happened in 2003.
The BJP should realise that a bulk of its gains would be on the account of weaknesses within the Congress, and not because it has strengthened its cadre base. From the word go, the fledgling state unit has had an uphill task of challenging the well-entrenched Congress with its grassroots organisational structure. Compounding the challenge for the saffron brigade is the simultaneous elections because the state BJP is a resource-constrained organisation with not many dedicated cadres, unlike theCongress with a large set-up and overflowing resources.
On top of it, the BJP’s decision to give tickets to “Congress refugees”, citing the winnability factor, has baffled party sympathisers. The party could have given the cadres an extra boost by rewarding their loyalty and commitment.
It seems that irreparable damage has been inflicted on the cadres’ psyche. However, if the BJP wants to become a real challenger to the Congress, it has to introspect on its long-term goal and focus on creating a holistic amalgam encompassing the AVVP and the BJYM.
(Published in Tehelka Magazine, Volume 11 Issue 14, Dated 5 April 2014)
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